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  • ʱ䣺2011-10-15ϢԴѧԺ壺[ С]

  • ЧӦ:ϸ70һȵѧڽͿϵͳʱ˵ѷһֻż񶯣Ҳܺͻÿ˹ݵһ硣
    ЧӦ˵ʼʮ΢Сı仯ϷŴ󣬶δ״̬ɼ޴IJЩС¿ԺͿЩС羭ϵͳŴһ֯һ˵ǺҪģͲܺͿ


    㷨
    ԭǼٶһֻҧסĽţȥͼĽţͬʱҧסĽ֡ͱҧסԽࡣԣһҧסĽţΨһİ취һֻš

    ƩڹУ㷨ǣ㷢ԼĽױгķ򣬱ֹ𣬲κ󣬲ôκνҡ


    ЧӦ
    ǰɳгɻʺܵ͡˷֣ɳзһ㣬ȴĹۣɻʻߡǺι?

    ԭڵһİĻ󣬾ͻ“鼱”ĴΣڴþɳ˵˽;ɳ㷢ֶһ“ѷ”ȻҲܽţζɳȱӭжˣɳҲͲˡ


    ȺЧӦ
    ͷߣ͸ߡ

    ȺЧӦǹƱͶеһҪָͶڽ׹дѧϰģ“ѧ”äĿЧ±ˣӶijʱͬĹƱ


    ⬷
    ֻĴ⬣ںӵһ𡣿Ϊ϶Ẉ̂뿪һξ룬ܲˣǴյһ𡣼ڣֻҵһʵľ룺ܻöԷůֲڱ
    ⬷Ҫָ˼ʽе“ЧӦ”

    ֱɣ
    ֱָһһֻʱ֪Ǽӣͬʱӵֻʱȴ޷ȷֻܸһ˸׼ȷʱ䣬ʹʧȥ׼ȷʱġ

    ֱҵһַdzֱ۵Ƕͬһ˻ͬһ֯ͬʱֲͬķͬʱͬĿ꣬ÿһ˲ͬʱָӣʹҵ߸ʴӡ

    ˶(ඨ)
    19ĩ20ͳľѧҰΪκһ鶫УҪֻռһС֣Լ20%80%ǶȴǴҪġԼ80%IJƸ20%80%ֻӵ20%ƸͳƵIJƽᡢü޴ڣǶ˷

    ˷ǣҪƽطͿ⣬ҵӪ͹Ҫץסؼ;ҪҳЩܸҵ80%ȴռ20%Ĺؼͻǿ񣬴ﵽ°빦Ч;ҵ쵼ҪԹҪҪڽҪ⡢ץҪĿϡ


    ľͰۣ
    ľͰľ̲룬ôľͰʢˮȡһľ壬ȡ̵һľ塣


    ̫ЧӦ
    ʥ-̫һԣ“еģҪӸ;ûеģеģҲҪ”

    ѧҴ“̫ЧӦ”һձڵֻ

    ߼

    һƯڷ۵ĵط˼죬һѡ֮һӵһֻ߼̺ܼ򵥣ⷿˣֻҪ߽䣬ͻ̲ס㣺“أDzˣ”ش“Ҵû”ǻʣ“ôҪһʲô”㲻òѡжѡһΪֹĽҪ׵öࡣ߼ԭܼ򵥣Ǿ󲿷ֵʱDzȡ˼άԿɼ͹߼˼άǶôҪ

    ƴЧӦ

    ѧои“ƴЧӦ”˵һˣûȥ޲ãĴҲĪı˴ƣһǽһЩͿѻûϴܿģǽϾͲ߰㣬ĿĶһܸɾĵط˻᲻˼һ֮˾ͻɵĒ˿Ǻֵ

    ѧоľ“”ϾҪж࣬ DzŻ÷ô࣬һνҪʲô̶ȣDzŻԱõס
    κλ£ڿʼʱûγɷҲIJͺӵ̣һСȱûмʱ޲Աӣǧ򱶵ʧ
    ʵʧĽŦԼ80ʱ޴ղɱ·ҲẦ¡˵ˣңͿ˻䣬ڵΣȻûбλڱڹ컯֮£һƹ۾ʧӴ˽оģʹҶ̸ɫֻȥŦԼᡣŦԼݺ˲٣ΪԾһѾ³ٵijУ
    ˣҳȥᣬһλѧʱֽ̣ԭŦԼõľǹȥ鱾ϽƴЧӦۣȸƷĻʹDz׷ ײع
    ʱȻΪü“Ҫ˻ϴװ”ŦԼлǴάɾ֣Ʊ״סųһվ̨ϣʾٵľģַdzЧ
    췢ǹȻȽϲڸɾijϷַץƱջΪÿƱоһͨʮоһЯ˾ԸȥץƱʹôͽƱŲҴòʧСʧŦԼоʹС׵ĵط֣˷ﻷ(chain)ʹѭ޷ȥ
    ηɢЧӦ
    1964313ҹ3ʱ20֣ŦԼijԢǰһλŵȰ׵Ůڽưͼ乤ؼҵ·̡غУ“Ҫɱ!!!”ס˵ƣ˴ˡһлָƽַֽкʱסִ˵ƣˡΪѾ£صԼ¥ʱһγǰɱ¥ϡУȣھ38λǰۿһһ˴绰ŦԼĺ䶯ҲѧߵӺ˼ǰڶԹ߼ȵΪηɢЧӦ
    ηɢЧӦγɵԭѧҽ˴ʵ͵飬֣ܽ˵˵飬ɥı֡ΪڲͬijϣǵԮΪȷʵDzͬġһ龳ʱֻһṩѵʶԼΣ߸ȻСھθУҪܸߵۡڳĻߵξɴֵηɢÿ˷ֵκ٣ԹԼһҲʶӶһ“Ҳȥȣɱȥ”“Į”ľ档δ־棬ѧоһҪ⡣

    ɭ

    Ӣʷѧŵ˹ŵ•ɭͨڵодһСɭɡ顣в˻Ա͵ԭ򼰺һְĹԱ·һְλøܸɵˣڶһλܸɵЭԼˮƽԼ͵˵֡һ·߲õģΪɥʧȨڶ·ҲߣΪǸܸɵ˻ΪԼĶֻ֣е·ˡǣƽӹֵַĹԼ߸ϷʩDzԼȨвּȻܣǾЧΪԼܵ֡ƣγһӷף˸£໥ƤЧʵµ쵼ϵ

    ЧӦ

    ĴĺϣЧӦó˴ͷȵذ˱Ϊ“Ī˹Ƶһ”̹Һ˻顣̹òˣϣ־ͬϡϣÿΰдõʫʱŶ˵“ҪҪ”෴Ҫϣ֣ϯһЩᡢᣬϣΪ˶´Ūծ̨Ϊʹһѧǹ䡣ϣһƯŮҲȻзǷǻۺ͸߹ƷȻʵˣ󱻳ΪЧӦ
    νЧӦ˼ʽУϱֳijһڸӶ˼֪ϰճУ“ЧӦ”ĵӰǶԱ˵֪ۡе˶˵ĸȱ㣬Ŵ硢ϰ߿˳ۣΪһûϢеĽѵijһɰ֮ͻôɰν“һڰٳ”ЧӦһƫȫܲ⣬ڣһץסĸϰԸƼһ㣬äһԵ棻ڶѲϵһЩԻòϵһ𣬶Ȼһ˵þȫ϶˵ȫ񶨣һƫ֧ľԻ֮ЧӦ˼ʽж˵Ӱܴ֪ϰڽҪرͿ˷ЧӦĸá

    ɣЧӦHawthorne effect

    ѧϵһʵЧӦ2020-30оԱ֥Ӹ˾ɣеĹغЧϵʵзʵЧӦƻɣЧӦ
    ʵĵһ׶Ǵ192411¿ʼĹЧĹϵΪʵͿ顣ӻȣʵȲĿҲӡ⣬˹ʱꡢϢʱ䡢ÿչȺÿܹأҲЩЧкֱӰ졣ڶ׶εѧ÷쵼ģоЧʵĹϵЧʵҪڱʵھ淢˾޴ı仯μĹ˱רŵʵҲоԱ쵼״˱仯ܵĹעӶγ˲ĸоԼǹ˾Ҫһ֣Ӷʹ˴Ƕȷ汻ٽ
    ЧӦǣͬѧԼܵڵĹעעʱѧϰͽЧʾͻӡˣճҪѧѺദʲôΪͬѧʦܺ͵ģֻѧϰвϵԼΪſܵ˵ĹעͣҲſǵѧϰϽţ

    ϰʵ

    ϰЧӦа¸׶֣ڶоб㷺̽֡򵥵˵ܶʵѵԽϻΪӱʵ߼ĵǣǰܵԤڣ֪ʲôʱҲɿƵĵжڹΪлʱҲ롣ңֳȱݣеɥѹ֣Խ͵ȵȡ
    ֮Աֳ״ʵѧһСҲ˵ʶԼʲôܿƵֹÿʵУֹʵƿ֮µģʶԼûıĿƣӶѧһС
    ϰͳΪһľͱˣѧϰӦԼ۹ڿһ㣬¼ľأҪʹԼ

    ֤˵ļ

    ֤ˣǵʶͨṩһЩ͹۵֤ݵˣǰԼۿ׶ĶʵؽˡȻѧо֤֤ܶṩ֤ʶ̫׼ȷ˵ǾиԣŸ˵Ĺ۵ʶ
    ֤˶ǵ֤ʵIJܾ֤ʵ׼ȷԣһо˸еȡѧѿغͺ˹һ۽иоΪ˿֤˵֤ǷرĶǽ֤˵ļһ֪ʶļ˱Ƚϡ
    ñԿһ̵¼ǹһŮܵİڶ죬ñԻشһЩй¼ݵ⣬Ҫ˵Լشij̶ȣȻϼ顣ʹͬķǴӰٿȫͨ׶ѡһ֪ʶ⡣
    ǰһѿغͺ˹Ҳ֣֤˻ľȷϣЩԼĻشʮʵϲЩûĵ˸һ֪ʶ˵Ͳĸߵ˻ɼIJ˺õöࡣ
    ǶԼһ֪ʶϵ֪֮ˣ޸ǶIJһ֪ʶһݿ⣬ڸ֮ǹģйϵȷ𰸣ԿԼȥ磬ǻ֪ԼǷȱ˸ûһ㡣ǣĿ¼֪֮Ӱ졣磬ϽDz֪Լȱڼ¼еIJͷɫû

    ɭЧӦ

    ѧɭ1968һʵ顣ǵһСѧһ꼶ѡĶͯɷнµ“ԤδչIJ”Ȼʵ߽Ϊ“췢չ”ѧ֪ͨʦʵǸݲȷģȡġ“ȨԵĻ”ʾʦӶ˽ʦϵѧijڴ8ºٴܲĽ֣ϵѧijɼձߣʦҲõƷʵȡ漣ЧǰͨʦѧDZĬӰ죬ӶʹѧȡýʦĽ󣬳Ϊ“ɭЧӦ”ϰҲΪƤ
    ЧӦƤǹϣ·˹һŮĽ֮飬ʹΪһˣమϣ
    ʵҲʦϲijЩѧǻᱧнϸһʱ䣬ѧܵʦĹػ͹Ի̬ȶԴʦԴѧϰԼԴԼΪѧš԰ǿշһֻϵļ飬ЩѧȡʦĽ෴Щܵʦӡӵѧö֮ӽʦ̸ֹиܵʦ“ƫ”Ҳ̬ȶԴʦԴԼѧϰܾʦҪЩѧһ仵ΪIJӡЩ⣬ȴˣͬʱҲʦ˾ӡ
     

    ͬƫfalse consensus bias

    ͨţǵİһġϲϷôпܸ߹ϲϷҲͨ߹ԼϲͬѧͶƱ߹ԼȺе쵼ȵȡָ߹Ϊ̬ͬصԾͽ“ͬƫ”ЩػӰͬƫǿȣ
    1ⲿĹǿڲʱ
    2ǰΪ¼ij˷dzҪʱ
    3ԼĹ۵dzȷʱ
    4ĵλѧϰܵijвʱ
    5漰ijֻƷʻʱ
    6㽫˿Լʱ

    èЧӦ
    йԼIJйӦ
    ˵IJѧ飬һŵȼǿɵϵδݣɽһֱɢײ㣬޴йСһԪأΪյܺߡ
    һԣ˵ܵԼһЩżȻصӰ죬һ˵仵ʱDZʶʹѡ޷߷йܵ˾ǿֻȥѰԼijͲͻγһķŭյijߣ“è”СȺ壬ҲȺ壬ΪҲжŭݵ

    οЧӦ
    αҩЧӦҩЧӦЧӦӢģPlacebo EffectԴplacebo“ҽο”ָȻЧƣȴ“Ԥ”“”Чò֢״õ滺ΪһֵעӦΪҽѧʵĴǷĴڣѧδȫ
    һȫ෴ЧӦͬʱ——οЧӦ ˲Чܻ񻯡οЧӦʹüⰲοЧӦͬķһЧҩĶȺ飬ֲ񻯵ڽҩʿҩЧи̬ȣ˰οЧӦ˷οЧӦЧӦõҩ𣬶ǻڲ϶Կ

    Ͱ
    һΪͰDzԸʹͰʮءΪ취һǣѶ˵ķ25Ԫߵ50ԪʵʩЧ΢ڶǣӽֵѲԱЧ಻Ͱϳ⣺һ綯ͰͰװһӦÿͰڣӦзӦ¼һ»ЦݻÿܻһΡƴܻӭе˲۾ԶͰ

    ͰϰװӦʽ¼ȥһ»ЦЧԶЩͷֶκõö࣬ʡǮֲǸеͬҪԱڹڼ͵⣬üܺʹֶʵҲǺЧģΪԱĹЧҪҪŬ

    ЧӦ
    ÿ2ʱңΪʱ̫ʵʱ̫ƫǹʱˡʱ֮ߣԴڴǰۡЧӦʾ ==
    ʵΪȱж——һδѵʶӶʹһһҵ߰ǵģΪʵڲ١ΪҵЧֱĵڣױȻľסʶĻۡ
    һĹߣԲӵԨ֪ʶԲɿĹĶңڷܶûУһҪͷԺͻԾ˼άܹ׽ͷͷʹͷ

    īƶɣMurphy's Law
    “īƶ”Murphy's LawĪǶɡĪǶĦƶ糣õٵ
    “īƶ”б仵ĿܣֿжСܻᷢ´Կףһ㷿ģһģóԿףᷢʲôǵģó˷Կס
    “īƶ”
    ꣬һ“”𽥽ϰﷶ룬ںĴ⣬ڶı壬“пֿܷԶôСܻᷢܵʧ”“If anything can go wrong, it will.ģս”“ЦһЦδرȽᔓԽãԽ”“ͼ裬н!”
    “īƶ”ԭ˵ģIf there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe, then someone will do it.ֻϵѡ񣬶һֽѣض˻ѡ񡣣
    “īƶ”һκ¶ûб濴ô򵥣е¶ԤƵʱ䳤ܻģ㵣ijô͸пܷ
    “īƶ”ǣǽֶԽǽҪٵ鷳Խء¹վɻᷢԶᷢ“īƶ”ҸǣȱݣûøܵȫһЩȡֱմʩֹżȻΪʧѺʧף“”һһ֣ԴֻʹʹֿԣDZѧνܴ󣬲ϴѧϰ
    Ƕᣬڽ׼һȥһʱȵԼᣬֽᷢеij⳵п;Ǹ㣬㲻Ҫ⳵ʱȴкܶճΧֻ߮һ֣ʱͣǰһǰԡҴ龵ӣϸͳˢҲҹŽ·ȹһʱȷûΣˣҵ»㻹DZ鲣˽šһƬµ̺ϣ涼ŵءһƬһͿйµ̺ϣй泯¡
    “īƶ”ǣ׷㣬ۿƼ෢¹ʶᷢǽֶԽٵ鷳ԽءԣǰӦǾܵȫһЩķһʧЦӦ԰ɣؼܽĴ󣬶ͼڸ

    ɧЧӦ:ǹ˾жԹɧˣǼҹ˾ϰһû˻˶ɧڶĹ˾ҪɹĶ

     

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